Tuesday, April 20, 2010

The Future Appears Cloudy for eBay


ebay
Q2 Estimates & Target
Here are my estimates for eBay’s Q2:
Q2 Revenue:  $2.30 Bil
Q2 EPS:  $0.39
Income Statement
Three months ended June 30, 2010
Revenue
$2,304,524
   Cost of Revenue
$532,086
Gross Margin
$1,772,439
Operating Expenses:
   R&D
$204,357
   S&M
$501,954
   G&A
$297,544
   Provision for Loan Loss
$108,313
   Amortization
$65,215
   Restructuring
$1,278
     Total
$1,178,660
Income from Operations
$593,779
Interest Income
$16,962
Income before Taxes
$610,741
Provision for Income Taxes
-$105,268
Net Income
$505,473
EPS
$0.39

Current Street consensus has second-quarter revenue and EPS at $2.20 Bil and $0.40, respectively.  Once again, my quarterly predictions are mixed, with revenue of $2.30 Bil above The Street’s consensus, while EPS of $0.39 is below. 
Price Target!
1 Year Target  =  $23.11
The average price 1-year price target on eBay’s stock is currently $28.30—my estimate is $5 lower.   In reaching the target of $23.11, I first needed to find the stock’s multiple.  I took the current trading price of $26.40 and divided it by the sum of the last three quarterly EPS numbers and my current Q1 estimate of $0.39.  This gave me a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 13.68.  The next step involved estimating all four quarterly EPS figures for 2010 (Q1-Q4) to arrive at total forward-year earnings of $1.69/share, or $0.02 above analysts' estimates.  Multiplying the P/E of 13.68 by the 2010 earnings estimate of $1.69/share yields the price target of $23.11.
Recommended Position
As a result of the following two factors, I am initiating a HOLD rating on eBay’s stock:
1)      Management’s inability to rein in costs and
2)      Uncertainty over the synergistic potential of recently acquired business units.
Tomorrow afternoon I’ll be posting a recap of eBay’s earnings report, comparing actual earnings to mine and The Street’s estimates.
If you like what you’ve read, be sure to leave me a comment!
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eBay Ownership
Author:   NO
Author’s Family:  NO


Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.

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