eBay Reports First-Quarter Results
Q1 Revenue: $2.20 Bil
Q1 EPS: $0.42
Q2 Revenue Guidance: $2.175 Bil (average)
Q2 EPS Guidance: $0.38 (average)
One of the biggest issues I faced when analyzing eBay, was wading through all of the adjustments and mergers and acquisitions (“M&A”) activity in order to pinpoint Q1 and Q2 earnings. Today’s announcement placed Q1 EPS at $0.30 with Adjusted EPS at $0.42—this is a 40% correction! EBay accountants are currently dealing with the chaos that occurs after a major unit is sold and new units are purchased. This confusion is shared by the analysts.
Today's earning report marks the first time that “The Street” has bested me. While they may have been closer on a few more metrics, I was able to better predict Q2 EPS, which leads me to my next point. Throughout the past few days, I did not hide my pessimism over eBay’s outlook. In fact, the title of my last post was “The Future Appears Cloudy for eBay.” As of this very moment, the market has had 40 minutes to digest this afternoon’s report and the stock is down 8% in after-hours trading. Over the next day or two, I will revise my Q2 earnings estimates by inputting today’s data into the models, so be looking for that.
On a separate note, I have selected the next stock to analyze: Texas Instruments (TXN)! They will report earnings after the bell on Monday, April 26th, so I will be posting my predictions over the weekend. The analysis on this company should be pretty straightforward, unlike eBay.
So, to sum up my performance over the past three weeks, I have better predicted the overall earnings reports for both RIMM and Google, while marginally underperforming on eBay.
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eBay Ownership
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Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
You did a nice job my friend. You may have been off on eps and revenue, but that's not what mattered today. Today was about future guidance, and they offered a TERRIBLE outlook, just like you had mentioned yesterday. You didn't lose here in my opinion...you won, and anyone who took your advice yesterday and shorted (or possibly bought puts) would have been wealthier tonight. Again, job well done.
ReplyDeleteThank-you for your very kind words. It is always a pleasure to know that someone appreciates my work.
ReplyDelete