Results for RIMM's latest quarterly (Q4) results
EPS: $1.27
REV: $4.08 billion
GM: 45.7%
Results for Q1 guidance
EPS: $1.31 - $1.38
REV: $4.25-4.45
GM: 44.5%
More analysis of these figures to come...
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
RIMM Releases Earnings TODAY
Today is the day for RIMM's latest Quarterly results!!
I'll post them here the second they come out!
Once again, be looking for the following:
EPS: $1.34
GM: 44.4%
Rev: $4.35 Bil
Next Quarter Guidance:
EPS: $1.29
GM: 43.4%
Rev: $4.36 Bil
I'll post them here the second they come out!
Once again, be looking for the following:
EPS: $1.34
GM: 44.4%
Rev: $4.35 Bil
Next Quarter Guidance:
EPS: $1.29
GM: 43.4%
Rev: $4.36 Bil
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Next Stock to Analyze
While this decision has not been set in stone yet, I am leaning toward choosing Google as the next company to analyze. Their first quarter earnings will come out in mid-April so I'll have to get started pretty soon!
In the meantime, don't forget that Research in Motion (RIMM) is coming out with fourth quarter results after the bell on Wednesday (3/31/10). Check out some of the previous posts to find out what my Q4 earnings estimates and Q1 guidance are!
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
In the meantime, don't forget that Research in Motion (RIMM) is coming out with fourth quarter results after the bell on Wednesday (3/31/10). Check out some of the previous posts to find out what my Q4 earnings estimates and Q1 guidance are!
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
RIMM Q1 Revenue & EPS Guidance
RIMM - Q1 Guidance
Q1 2011 Revenue Estimate: $4,364,291
EPS Estimate: $1.29
Gross Margin: 43.4%
INCOME STATEMENT | |
Three Months Ended May 29, 2010 | |
Revenue | $4,364,291 |
Cost of Sales | $2,471,183 |
Gross Margin | $1,893,108 |
43.4% | |
Operating Expenses: | |
R&D | $271,536 |
SG&A | $569,424 |
Amortization | $89,092 |
Total | $930,052 |
Income from Operations | $963,056 |
Investment Income | $8,697 |
Income before Taxes | $971,752 |
Provision for Income Taxes | $254,151 |
Net Income | $717,601 |
EPS | |
Basic | $1.29 |
Given the slightly cyclical nature of RIMM’s business, the first quarter of the 2011 fiscal year is reduced by its seasonal index of .938. Gross Margin is slightly lower than the Q4 estimate as a result of higher costs for the quarter. This trend is further evidenced by a higher SG&A estimate in comparison to Q4 predictions.
Once the fourth quarter results hit the wires Wednesday afternoon, I will be able to retune the statistical models to better forecast Q1, 2011 results.
*On a side note, remember that RIMM does not follow a traditional calendar-year reporting cycle. Instead, their fiscal 2011 year actually began on March 1st, 2010. Don’t get confused when I start talking about estimates for “Q1” when we are about to begin the month of April!
Below I’ve included all four seasonal indexes for the year that I use throughout my estimates. I also added an aesthetically pleasing income statement that compares Wednesday’s earnings predictions (Q4) with next quarter’s estimates (Q1).
Seasonal Indexes | |||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
0.938458 | 1.130057 | 0.970877 | 0.960608 |
INCOME STATEMENT | ||
Three Months Ended May 29, 2010 | ||
This Quarter | Next Quarter | |
Revenue | $4,354,493 | $4,364,291 |
Cost of Sales | $2,422,842 | $2,471,183 |
Gross Margin | $1,931,651 | $1,893,108 |
44.4% | 43.4% | |
Operating Expenses: | ||
R&D | $271,471 | $271,536 |
SG&A | $554,904 | $569,424 |
Amortization | $85,274 | $89,092 |
Total | $911,648 | $930,052 |
Income from Operations | $1,020,003 | $963,056 |
Investment Income | $6,532 | $8,697 |
Income before Taxes | $1,026,535 | $971,752 |
Provision for Income Taxes | $283,042 | $254,151 |
Net Income | $743,493 | $717,601 |
EPS | ||
Basic | $1.34 | $1.29 |
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
RIMM 4th Quarter 2010 Earnings Forecast
RIMM - Research in Motion
Q4 2010 Revenue Estimate: $4,354,493
EPS Estimate: $1.34
Gross Margin: 44.4%
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The following is just a hint at the process undertaken to arrive at the above estimates:
In order to arrive at the Q4 Revenue estimate, 10 different regression models with differing lengths of data were tested to determine which model best predicted Q3 2009 sales. This included the following types of regression, to name a few: Dummy Coding, First-Order Linear, Exponential, Deseasonal, and Lagged Auto Regression. After evaluating the accuracies of the various predictions using the below table, I decided to use a combination of Deseasonal and Lagged Auto Regression.
Accuracy | |||||||
Model | Prediction | Percent Err. | W/ St. Err. | Percent Err. | R^2 | Ad R^2 | |
First-Order | $3,135,929 | 20.1% | $3,566,992 | 9.1% | 86.05% | 85.41% | |
Exponential | $4,734,462 | -20.6% | - | - | 98.60% | - | |
Deasonal | $2,979,105 | 24.1% | $3,451,442 | 12.0% | 83.71% | 83.03% | |
Dummy | $2,959,679 | 24.6% | $3,441,444 | 12.3% | 84.69% | 81.77% | |
Lagged | $4,198,463 | -7.0% | $4,418,114 | -12.6% | 96.56% | 96.20% | |
First-Order 2 | $3,455,571 | 11.9% | $3,803,549 | 3.1% | 90.92% | 90.38% | |
Exponential 2 | $4,572,049 | -16.5% | - | - | 98.60% | - | |
Deasonal 2 | $3,400,009 | 13.4% | $3,783,254 | 3.6% | 89.55% | 88.94% | |
Dummy 2 | $3,373,129 | 14.0% | $3,749,819 | 4.4% | 91.23% | 88.73% | |
Lagged 2 | $4,063,633 | -3.6% | $4,234,519 | -7.9% | 97.91% | 97.56% | |
Actual Nov-2009 Sales | |||||||
$3,924,310 | |||||||
Current consensus puts EPS at $1.28. If the $1.34 prediction is correct, this could result in considerable upside for the stock.
RIMM Ownership
Author: NO
Author’s Family: NO
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
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