When I started this blog, I never expected to receive such an outpouring of support from so many unknown readers and followers. After nearly two months of projections and dissemination, statistics clearly show that more than 70% of the time, the estimates posted here have been closer to actual earnings than analysts' consensus.
So what's next? Well, throughout the month of June, I will be reassessing RIMM, GOOG, XOM, EBAY, KFT, and HPQ in order to make any necessary revisions for the upcoming quarter. Afterward, I will be posting new analysis and earnings estimates for many more U.S. companies. These may include such widely-traded stocks as MSFT, MCD, BA, INTC, AA, AMZN, CSCO, CAT, IBM, UTX, T, and WMT.
If you are not already a follower or an email subscriber, I encourage you to become one so you are alerted the moment a new post is published!
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
Showing posts with label Kraft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kraft. Show all posts
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
1-Month Performance Report
Nearly a month ago I started this blog; I felt that I had the knowledge and capability to compete with big Wall Street analysts. Over the past few weeks, the results of this experiment have far exceeded any of my expectations. Time-and-again, I have seen my predictions prove more accurate than the Street’s consensus. Since starting this blog, I have analyzed five very unique companies with operations ranging from oil and gas exploration to online advertising. The results of my analyses compared to average analyst estimates are summarized in the table below. Each yellow cell reveals the lowest percentage of error for the corresponding measure. As is evidenced from the table, 69% of the time, my estimates are more accurate than the Street’s.
So how can my analysis benefit you? Those with the most accurate information are better able to maximize or protect their wealth by either buying undervalued stocks or selling overvalued ones. The bottom line is this: Information is King.
Actual Results | Wall Street Estimates | % Error | Smithson's Estimates | % Error | |||
Revenue | $11,318 | $10,950 | 3.25% | $11,155 | 1.44% | Kraft | |
Q1 EPS | $0.49 | $0.45 | 8.16% | $0.48 | 2.04% | ||
Q1 EPS | $1.33 | $1.41 | -6.02% | $1.37 | -3.01% | Exxon Mobil | |
Adj. Q1 EPS | $1.37 | $1.41 | -2.92% | $1.37 | 0.00% | ||
Q1 Rev | $90.25 | $96.41 | -6.83% | $92.88 | -2.91% | ||
Q1 Rev | $2.20 | $2.18 | 0.91% | $2.25 | -2.27% | eBay | |
Q1 EPS | $0.42 | $0.41 | 2.38% | $0.39 | 7.14% | ||
Q2 Rev Guidance | $2.18 | $2.20 | -0.92% | $2.30 | -5.50% | ||
Q2 EPS Guidance | $0.38 | $0.40 | -5.26% | $0.39 | -2.63% | ||
Q1Revenue | $5,064 | $4,950 | 2.25% | $5,161 | -1.92% | Google | |
Q1 EPS | $6.76 | $6.56 | 2.96% | $6.61 | 2.22% | ||
Q4 Revenue | $4.08 | $4.31 | -5.64% | $4.35 | -6.62% | Research in Motion | |
Q4 Gross Margin | 45.7% | 43.3% | 5.25% | 44.4% | 2.84% | ||
Q4 EPS | $1.27 | $1.28 | -0.79% | $1.34 | -5.51% | ||
Q1 Rev Guidance | $4.35 | $4.33 | 0.46% | $4.36 | -0.23% | ||
Q1 EPS Guidance | $1.35 | $1.22 | 9.63% | $1.29 | 4.44% | ||
69% of the time, my estimates are closer to actual results than analysts' consensus! | |||||||
The overwhelming success of this blog is not only measured by the accuracy of my projections, but also by the number of unique visits to the site. After just shy of one month, several thousand unique visitors from all over the world have come to the site!
I encourage each visitor to click the “Follow” button in the upper-right portion of the screen. By doing so, you are able to catch all of my new posts as soon as they’re released!
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Kraft Announces Superb Quarterly Results
The Street vs. Tyler Smithson
Kraft Q1 Results
Actual Q1 Revenue: $11.30 Bil
Actual Q1 EPS: $0.49
Kraft blew away Wall Street projections today, with first-quarter revenue coming in 3.25% above consensus. This represents a 20.5% year-over-year increase and a 2.7% quarter-over-quarter increase. Likewise, EPS also came in above expectations with an 8.16% surprise.
Figure 1
Actual | Tyler Smithson | Difference | The Street | Difference | |
Revenue | $11,318 | $11,155 | 1.44% | $10,950 | 3.25% |
Q1 EPS | $0.49 | $0.48 | 2.04% | $0.45 | 8.16% |
While Kraft’s earnings were a big surprise for Wall Street analysts covering the company, for my followers and I, results were pretty close to expectations. As evidenced by Figure 1, I was significantly closer on both measures. While the Street was off 3.25% on Q1 revenue, my estimates were less than have that difference—only 1.44%. When the focus is turned to EPS, the differences become much more extreme. Analysts were off an appalling 8.16% and I was only off a fourth of that, or 2.04%!
Wall Street analysts should be hiding right now given their subpar predications. It is apparent that their method of analysis employs, to a great extent, “SWAG.” I was first introduced to this term by one of my graduate finance professors at Missouri State. “SWAG” is an acronym for “Scientific Wild-A$$ Guess.”
Those looking for accurate and unbiased earnings estimates, look no further than Smithson Equity Analysis. Be sure to click the “Follow” button in the upper-right portion of your screen so you can be the first to catch all of my new posts.
I haven't decided which company I'll be analyzing next, but I'd be happy to consider any suggestions.
KFT Ownership
Author: NO
Author’s Family: NO
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
How Will The Day Shape Up for Kraft?
Analysis of Kraft’s Upcoming Quarterly Results
Kraft will report earnings after the bell today, May 6th. Current Street consensus has first-quarter revenue increasing 16.5% year-over-year and EPS stable at $0.45. My estimates, on the other hand, are slightly higher on both measures, with revenue expected to come in at $11.16 Bil and EPS at $0.48.
The first step in my analysis was to create regression models that could accurately predict last quarter’s (Q4) sales figure. The usual suspects were once again used, including First-Order, Autoregression, Dummy Coding, and Deseasonal models. Each model was compared to actual sales and an average was created. This average overestimated the data at first, but when I removed the effects of Autoregression, the result was only 0.005% off, as can be seen by Figure 1. This is remarkably close! I then used these same statistical models to predict the upcoming quarter's sales number. The result was $11.16 Bil. Figure 2 shows how this estimate was formed.
From this point, I then proceeded to create a common-size income statement by compiling data from the past eight quarters. After pouring over hundreds of pages of past company filings, I arrived at my current line-by-line income statement. Based upon the resulting Net Income figure, EPS came to $0.48, or $0.03 above current Street consensus.
Figure 1
Q4 Accuracy | ||||
Model | Prediction | Percent Err. | W/ St. Err. | Percent Err. |
First-Order | $10,684.8 | 3.09% | $11,243 | -1.98% |
CFO | $10,754.0 | 2.46% | $11,325 | -2.72% |
Deasonal | $10,691 | 3.03% | $11,382 | -3.23% |
Dummy | $10,752 | 2.48% | $11,325 | -2.72% |
AVERAGE | $10,720 | 2.76% | $11,319 | -2.66% |
AVERAGE | $11,019 | 0.05% | ||
Figure 2
Q1 Prediction | ||
Model | Prediction | W/ St. Err. |
First-Order | $10,935.4 | $11,479 |
CFO | $11,038.3 | $11,589 |
Deasonal | $10,735 | $11,405 |
Dummy | $10,754 | $11,305 |
AVERAGE | $10,866 | $11,444 |
AVERAGE | $11,155 | |
While I am predicting that costs will rise quarter-over-quarter, the increase in sales should overcompensate. We’ll find out for sure at approximately 3:00 pm CST this afternoon.
If you like what you’ve been reading, I encourage you to click the “Follow” button in the upper-right portion of your screen so you can quickly catch all of my new posts. Remember, those with quick and accurate information slaughter those without.
KFT Ownership
Author: NO
Author’s Family: NO
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
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