Nearly a month ago I started this blog; I felt that I had the knowledge and capability to compete with big Wall Street analysts. Over the past few weeks, the results of this experiment have far exceeded any of my expectations. Time-and-again, I have seen my predictions prove more accurate than the Street’s consensus. Since starting this blog, I have analyzed five very unique companies with operations ranging from oil and gas exploration to online advertising. The results of my analyses compared to average analyst estimates are summarized in the table below. Each yellow cell reveals the lowest percentage of error for the corresponding measure. As is evidenced from the table, 69% of the time, my estimates are more accurate than the Street’s.
So how can my analysis benefit you? Those with the most accurate information are better able to maximize or protect their wealth by either buying undervalued stocks or selling overvalued ones. The bottom line is this: Information is King.
Actual Results | Wall Street Estimates | % Error | Smithson's Estimates | % Error | |||
Revenue | $11,318 | $10,950 | 3.25% | $11,155 | 1.44% | Kraft | |
Q1 EPS | $0.49 | $0.45 | 8.16% | $0.48 | 2.04% | ||
Q1 EPS | $1.33 | $1.41 | -6.02% | $1.37 | -3.01% | Exxon Mobil | |
Adj. Q1 EPS | $1.37 | $1.41 | -2.92% | $1.37 | 0.00% | ||
Q1 Rev | $90.25 | $96.41 | -6.83% | $92.88 | -2.91% | ||
Q1 Rev | $2.20 | $2.18 | 0.91% | $2.25 | -2.27% | eBay | |
Q1 EPS | $0.42 | $0.41 | 2.38% | $0.39 | 7.14% | ||
Q2 Rev Guidance | $2.18 | $2.20 | -0.92% | $2.30 | -5.50% | ||
Q2 EPS Guidance | $0.38 | $0.40 | -5.26% | $0.39 | -2.63% | ||
Q1Revenue | $5,064 | $4,950 | 2.25% | $5,161 | -1.92% | Google | |
Q1 EPS | $6.76 | $6.56 | 2.96% | $6.61 | 2.22% | ||
Q4 Revenue | $4.08 | $4.31 | -5.64% | $4.35 | -6.62% | Research in Motion | |
Q4 Gross Margin | 45.7% | 43.3% | 5.25% | 44.4% | 2.84% | ||
Q4 EPS | $1.27 | $1.28 | -0.79% | $1.34 | -5.51% | ||
Q1 Rev Guidance | $4.35 | $4.33 | 0.46% | $4.36 | -0.23% | ||
Q1 EPS Guidance | $1.35 | $1.22 | 9.63% | $1.29 | 4.44% | ||
69% of the time, my estimates are closer to actual results than analysts' consensus! | |||||||
The overwhelming success of this blog is not only measured by the accuracy of my projections, but also by the number of unique visits to the site. After just shy of one month, several thousand unique visitors from all over the world have come to the site!
I encourage each visitor to click the “Follow” button in the upper-right portion of the screen. By doing so, you are able to catch all of my new posts as soon as they’re released!
Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.
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