Intel & VMware Jump in After Hours Tradings

Intel Corporation finished the after hours session up 4.58%, while traders pushed shares of VMware up 12.48%.   

Intel
Paul Otellini stated that Intel's Q1 results were "...an all-time record for Intel fueled by double digit annual revenue growth in every major product segment and across all geographies."  Below is a comparison of my Q1 prediction versus actual results.

Income Statement
Three months ended March 31, 2011
	Tyler Smithson	Actual
Net Revenue	$11,377	12,847
Cost of Sales	4,278	4,962
Gross Margin	7,099	7,885
R&D	1,670	1,916
MG&A	1,672	1,775
Amortization	7	36
Operating Expenses	3,349	3,727
Operating Income	3,749	4,158
Gains/(Losses) on Equity Investments	-39	28
Gains/(Losses) on Other Equity Investments	-27	-
Interest and Other, Net	95	185
Income Before Taxes	3,778	4,371
Provision for Taxes	1,141	1,211
Net Income	$2,637	$3,160
EPS	$0.47	$0.56

VMware

Not only did VMware have a spectacular quarter, Mark Peek, the chief financial officer, also guided higher for the second quarter and fiscal 2011 year:

 

VMware's first quarter results were driven by strong demand across all geographies.  Second quarter 2011 revenues are expected to be in the range of $860 and $880 million, a year-over-year increase of 28% to 31%. For the year, we expect annual revenues to be in the range of $3.55 billion and $3.65 billion, an increase of 24% to 28% compared to 2010. We expect our non-GAAP operating margin for 2011 to expand slightly from 2010.

Below is a comparison of my Q1 prediction versus actual results.

Income Statement
Three months ended March 31, 2011
	Tyler Smithson	Actual
Total Revenue	$817,542	$843,721
Operating Ex:
Cost of License Revenue	50,824	56,018
Cost of Service Revenue	89,752	93,879
R&D	179,859	169,163
Sales & Marketing	302,490	302,924
G&A	74,226	68,235
Total Operating Ex	697,152	690,219
Operating Income	120,390	153,502
Investment Income	2,648	3,406
Interest Ex	-1,093	-959
Other Income	-3,546	165
Income Before Taxes	118,400	156,114
Provision for Income Taxes	21,111	30,302
Net Income	97,289	125,812
EPS	$0.42	$0.48

The Street v. Tyler Smithson

Company	Metric	Actual	Analysts’ Consensus	% Error	Tyler Smithson	% Error
Intel	Revenue	$12.90	$11.60	10.08%	$11.38	11.78%
	EPS	$0.59	$0.46	22.03%	$0.47	20.34%
VMware	Revenue	$843.72	$815.06	-3.40%	$817.54	-3.10%
	EPS	$0.48	$0.42	12.50%	$0.42	12.50%

INTC Ownership                     VMW Ownership

Author:   NO                          Author:  YES

Author’s Family:  NO              Author's Family:  NO

Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.

· It is important to do your own due diligence on any position you enter.

VMware, Inc

Q1 Rev Est.:  $817.54 Mil

Q1 EPS Est.:  $0.42

VMware will report first quarter earnings after today’s closing bell.  Analysts, on average, are expecting quarterly revenue of $815.35 Mil with earnings of $0.42. 

My models are predicting slightly higher revenue of $817.54 Mil with earnings of $0.42.

Revenue

Once again, averaging each model’s quarterly projection plus the standard error appears to provide a relatively accurate estimate of revenue.

Exhibit 1

Q1-2011 Prediction
Model	Prediction	W/ St. Err.
First-Order	$773,044	$818,643
Deasonal	$776,921	$833,182
Dummy	$761,339	$805,931
Lagged	$760,847	$812,411
AVERAGE	$768,038	$817,542
PREDICTION	$817,542

Earnings

My estimate of earnings is in line with analysts’ consensus of $0.42 per share.  Exhibit 2, below, reflects a gross margin of 14.7%.

Exhibit 2

Income Statement
Three months ended March 31, 2011
Total Revenue	$817,542
Operating Ex:
Cost of License Revenue	50,824
Cost of Service Revenue	89,752
R&D	179,859
Sales & Marketing	302,490
G&A	74,226
Total Operating Ex	697,152
Operating Income	120,390
Investment Income	2,648
Interest Ex	-1,093
Other Income	-3,546
Income Before Taxes	118,400
Provision for Income Taxes	21,111
Net Income	97,289
EPS	$0.42

VMW Ownership

Author:   Yes

Author’s Family:  NO

Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.

· It is important to do your own due diligence on any position you enter.

Intel Corporation

Q1 Rev Est.:  $11.38 Bil

Q1 EPS Est.:  $0.47

Intel Corp. will report first quarter earnings after tomorrow’s closing bell.  On average, analysts are expecting $11.60 Bil in revenue with earnings of $0.46 per share. 

My models are predicting revenue to come in slightly below expectations—$11.38 Bil—with earnings slightly ahead—$0.47. 

Revenue

As evident from Exhibit 1, averaging each model’s prediction plus standard error appears to provide a relatively accurate estimate of quarterly revenue.  My estimate is below current consensus; however, I feel that it accurately reflects the seasonal nature of Intel’s business. 

Exhibit 1

Q3 Accuracy
Model	Prediction	Percent Er.	W/ St. Er.	Percent Er.
First-Order	$9,860	-11.19%	$10,891	-1.90%
Deseasonal	$10,267	-7.52%	$11,539	3.93%
Dummy	$10,190	-8.21%	$11,252	1.36%
Lagged	$9,510	-14.34%	$10,611	-4.43%
AVERAGE	$9,957	-10.31%	$11,073	-0.26%
	AVERAGE	$11,073	-0.26%
Actual Q3-2010		$11,102

Q4 Accuracy
Model	Prediction	Percent Er.	W/ St. Er.	Percent Er.
First-Order	$10,180	-11.15%	$11,216	-2.10%
Deseasonal	$10,764	-6.05%	$12,058	5.24%
Dummy	$10,512	-8.25%	$11,555	0.86%
Lagged	$9,551	-13.97%	$10,677	-6.81%
AVERAGE	$10,252	-9.85%	$11,377	-0.70%
	AVERAGE	$11,377	-0.70%
Actual Q4-2010		$11,457

Q1 Projection
Model	Prediction	W/ St. Er.
First-Order	$10,513	$11,556
Deseasonal	$10,108	$11,420
Dummy	$9,977	$11,006
Lagged	$10,362	$11,526
AVERAGE	$10,240	$11,377
PREDICTION	$11,377

Earnings

I am anticipating an EPS figure of $0.47.  This reflects an increased Cost of Sales figure due to the NVIDIA agreement, along with an effective tax rate of 30.2%.

                                          

Exhibit 2

Income Statement
Three months ended March 31, 2011
Net Revenue	$11,377
Cost of Sales	4,278
Gross Margin	7,099
R&D	1,670
MG&A	1,672
Amortization	7
Operating Expenses	3,349
Operating Income	3,749
Gains/(Losses) on Equity Investments	-39
Gains/(Losses) on Other Equity Investments	-27
Interest and Other, Net	95
Income Before Taxes	3,778
Provision for Taxes	1,141
Net Income	2,637
Diluted EPS	$0.47

INTC Ownership

Author:   NO

Author’s Family:  NO

Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.

· It is important to do your own due diligence on any position you enter.