The Street vs. Tyler Smithson: Exxon Mobil

The Street vs. Tyler Smithson

Exxon Mobil Q1 Results

Actual Q1 Revenue:  $90.25 Bil

Actual Q1 EPS:  $1.33

Adj. Q1 EPS:  $1.37

Here we go again, folks!  It’s now time to find out who better predicted quarterly earnings, The Street or Tyler Smithson. 

Exxon Mobil Q1
	Actual	Wall Street	% Error	Tyler Smithson	% Error
Q1 EPS	$1.33	$1.41	6.02%	$1.37	3.01%
Adj. Q1 EPS	$1.37	$1.41	2.92%	$1.37	0.00%
Q1 Rev	$90.25	$96.41	6.83%	$92.88	2.91%

Q1 EPS:  Exxon (“XOM”) reported a quarterly EPS figure of $1.33.  However, this number includes a charge of -$0.04 due to the recently passed healthcare legislation.  When adjusted for this expense (not “cost”), EPS actually came in at $1.37.  Analysts on average predicted an EPS figure of $1.41, a difference of 6.02% from $1.33, and 2.92% higher than the adjusted figure of $1.37.  On the other hand, Tyler Smithson forecasted Q1 EPS at $1.37, which is a difference of only 3.01% (half of The Street’s variation) from the reported figure of $1.33, and exactly the same as adjusted EPS.  Scorecard:  Smithson: 1, Wall Street: 0

Q1 Revenue:  Revenue was actually $90.25 Bil for the first quarter.  Analysts were shockingly far off on this one—6.83%—compared to 2.91% for Smithson.  When looking at revenue dollar-for-dollar, The Street was off a whopping $6.16 Bil!  This is in contrast to $2.63 Bil for Tyler Smithson.  Scorecard:  Smithson: 2, Wall Street: 0   BLOWOUT

This marks yet another instance where I have outperformed the big Wall Street firms.  I better predicted earnings for RIMM, GOOG, and now XOM, while also sounding the alarm for eBay shareholders.  I hope that many of my readers realize the importance of the information they have been given.  Stocks move according to earnings expectations, and those with accurate information slaughter those with inaccurate information. 

If you like what you’ve been reading over the past few weeks, then be sure to click “Follow” in the upper-right portion of your screen.  Considering just how accurate I was with Exxon’s earnings, I hope that many of you will become followers.

I’m not sure which company I’ll analyze next, but I hope to make that announcement in another day or two.  If you have any suggestions, I'd be happy to consider them, just leave a comment. 

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Disclaimer:
· Opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice.
· This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
· Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.